How Britain’s biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War. (Part 2) Continue reading...
In the case of a major British supermarket, how might executives plan for, say, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
The first question is how involved the UK expects to be, says Crump. But if Britain, as might be expected, sides with the US at least in diplomatic terms, “we’re not buying anything from China”.
That immediately has implications for a company’s supply chains – are there any parts of the supply chain that would be crippled without Chinese products?
But as the recent cyber attack on Marks & Spencer has demonstrated, attacks on critical digital infrastructure are also a major risk to supermarkets in the event of a war with China or Russia.
“If you look at a retailer, the vulnerability is not necessarily whether or not they can transport stuff to the shop, even in a war zone,” says Crump. “The problem becomes when you can’t operate your systems.
“If you can’t take money at the point of sale, or if you have no idea where your stock is because your computer system has been taken down, you’ve got major problems and you can’t operate your business.”
Workforce gaps
In a scenario where Britain becomes involved in a war itself, Crump says employers may also suddenly find themselves with gaps in their workforces.
He believes things would need to get “very bad indeed” for the Government to impose conscription, which applied to men aged 18-41 during the Second World War.
But he points out that the calling up of British armed forces reservists would be very likely, along with the potential mobilisation of what is known as the “strategic reserve” – those among the country’s 1.8 million veterans who are still fit to serve.
There are around 32,000 volunteer reservists and an undisclosed number of regular reserves, former regular members of the armed forces who are still liable to be called up.
“There’s a big pool of people we don’t tap at the moment who are already trained,” explains Crump.
“But there would be consequences if the entire reserve was called forward, which would have to happen if we entered a reasonably sized conflict. It would certainly cause disruptions.
“The medical services are hugely integrated with the NHS, for example, and we saw the effects of them being called forward with Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Food supplies
The sort of supermarket chaos that erupted during the Covid-19 pandemic would also return with a vengeance if a significant conflict broke out.
During that crisis, grocers had to limit how many packs of loo rolls and cans of chopped tomatoes shoppers were allowed to take home, among other items, because of supply chain problems.
“If we’re in a conflict, that sort of supply chain activity would increase,” notes Crump.
“So you don’t necessarily have rationing imposed, but there might be issues with food production, delivery, payment and getting things to the right place.
“In a world where we don’t have our own independent supply chains, we’re reliant on a lot of very interconnected moving parts that have been enabled by this period of peace.
“We’ve never been in a conflict during a time where we’ve had ‘just in time’ systems.”
Spanish blackouts: A dry run
Crump brings up the recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal. British grocers initially thought their food supplies would be completely unaffected because truck loads of tomatoes had already made their way out of the country when the problem struck.
But the vehicles were electronically locked, to prevent illegal migrants attempting to clamber inside when they cross the English Channel and could only be unlocked from Spain – where the power cuts had taken down computer systems and telecoms.
“People in Spain couldn’t get online, so we had locked trucks full of tomatoes sitting here that we couldn’t open because of technology,” Crump says.
“No one had ever thought, ‘But what happens if all of Spain goes off the grid?’ And I’m sure the answer would have been, ‘That’ll never happen’ anyway.”
This tendency towards “normalcy bias” is what Crump tries to steer his clients away from.
While it isn’t inevitable that war will break out, or that there will be another pandemic, humans tend to assume that things will revert to whatever the status quo has been in their lifetimes, he says. This can mean we fail to take the threat of unlikely scenarios seriously enough, or use outdated ways of thinking to solve new problems.
“We’ve had this long period of peace and prosperity. And, of course, business leaders have grown up in that. Military leaders have grown up in it. Politicians have grown up in it. And so it’s very hard when that starts to change.
“People have grown up in a world of rules. And I think people are still trying to find ways in which the game is still being played by those old rules.”
Unsurprisingly, given his line of work, Crump believes businesses must get more comfortable contemplating the unthinkable.
“Go back a decade and most executives did not want to have a crisis because a crisis is bad for your career, so they didn’t want to do a test exercise – because you might fail,” Crump adds.
“But the whole point is that you can fail in an exercise, because it’s not real life.”
At least, not yet.
In the case of a major British supermarket, how might executives plan for, say, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
The first question is how involved the UK expects to be, says Crump. But if Britain, as might be expected, sides with the US at least in diplomatic terms, “we’re not buying anything from China”.
That immediately has implications for a company’s supply chains – are there any parts of the supply chain that would be crippled without Chinese products?
But as the recent cyber attack on Marks & Spencer has demonstrated, attacks on critical digital infrastructure are also a major risk to supermarkets in the event of a war with China or Russia.
“If you look at a retailer, the vulnerability is not necessarily whether or not they can transport stuff to the shop, even in a war zone,” says Crump. “The problem becomes when you can’t operate your systems.
“If you can’t take money at the point of sale, or if you have no idea where your stock is because your computer system has been taken down, you’ve got major problems and you can’t operate your business.”
Workforce gaps
In a scenario where Britain becomes involved in a war itself, Crump says employers may also suddenly find themselves with gaps in their workforces.
He believes things would need to get “very bad indeed” for the Government to impose conscription, which applied to men aged 18-41 during the Second World War.
But he points out that the calling up of British armed forces reservists would be very likely, along with the potential mobilisation of what is known as the “strategic reserve” – those among the country’s 1.8 million veterans who are still fit to serve.
There are around 32,000 volunteer reservists and an undisclosed number of regular reserves, former regular members of the armed forces who are still liable to be called up.
“There’s a big pool of people we don’t tap at the moment who are already trained,” explains Crump.
“But there would be consequences if the entire reserve was called forward, which would have to happen if we entered a reasonably sized conflict. It would certainly cause disruptions.
“The medical services are hugely integrated with the NHS, for example, and we saw the effects of them being called forward with Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Food supplies
The sort of supermarket chaos that erupted during the Covid-19 pandemic would also return with a vengeance if a significant conflict broke out.
During that crisis, grocers had to limit how many packs of loo rolls and cans of chopped tomatoes shoppers were allowed to take home, among other items, because of supply chain problems.
“If we’re in a conflict, that sort of supply chain activity would increase,” notes Crump.
“So you don’t necessarily have rationing imposed, but there might be issues with food production, delivery, payment and getting things to the right place.
“In a world where we don’t have our own independent supply chains, we’re reliant on a lot of very interconnected moving parts that have been enabled by this period of peace.
“We’ve never been in a conflict during a time where we’ve had ‘just in time’ systems.”
Spanish blackouts: A dry run
Crump brings up the recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal. British grocers initially thought their food supplies would be completely unaffected because truck loads of tomatoes had already made their way out of the country when the problem struck.
But the vehicles were electronically locked, to prevent illegal migrants attempting to clamber inside when they cross the English Channel and could only be unlocked from Spain – where the power cuts had taken down computer systems and telecoms.
“People in Spain couldn’t get online, so we had locked trucks full of tomatoes sitting here that we couldn’t open because of technology,” Crump says.
“No one had ever thought, ‘But what happens if all of Spain goes off the grid?’ And I’m sure the answer would have been, ‘That’ll never happen’ anyway.”
This tendency towards “normalcy bias” is what Crump tries to steer his clients away from.
While it isn’t inevitable that war will break out, or that there will be another pandemic, humans tend to assume that things will revert to whatever the status quo has been in their lifetimes, he says. This can mean we fail to take the threat of unlikely scenarios seriously enough, or use outdated ways of thinking to solve new problems.
“We’ve had this long period of peace and prosperity. And, of course, business leaders have grown up in that. Military leaders have grown up in it. Politicians have grown up in it. And so it’s very hard when that starts to change.
“People have grown up in a world of rules. And I think people are still trying to find ways in which the game is still being played by those old rules.”
Unsurprisingly, given his line of work, Crump believes businesses must get more comfortable contemplating the unthinkable.
“Go back a decade and most executives did not want to have a crisis because a crisis is bad for your career, so they didn’t want to do a test exercise – because you might fail,” Crump adds.
“But the whole point is that you can fail in an exercise, because it’s not real life.”
At least, not yet.
3 months ago
