India “Bets Big” On Russia Despite US Lure & Chinese Fear; Here Is Why Delhi & Moscow Remain ‘Trusted Pals’........(Part1)
The foundation of the China-Russia “no-limits” alliance is rooted in the evolving global power structure since the early 2010s. Both nations perceived a need to collaborate against the United States’ hegemonic, albeit declining, influence.
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has skillfully maneuvered the international landscape to enhance its global standing. Utilizing its substantial hard power — conventional military strength, extensive nuclear deterrence, private militias, energy resources, and strategic geopolitical moves — Russia seeks to maximize its bargaining power and extend its influence.
The Russo-China alliance is visibly strengthening through joint military exercises and defense agreements. This military cooperation serves multiple purposes, such as enhancing capabilities and deterring Western military intervention in their respective spheres of influence.
Economically, the alliance is bolstered by robust trade relations, particularly in energy and natural resources, where Russia is a critical supplier to China. China’s vast energy demands are met by Russian oil and gas exports, securing a stable supply while reducing dependency on potentially hostile Western sources.
Moscow’s strategy in the Russian war against Ukraine aims to disrupt the European security architecture. In Asia, China plans to focus on solidifying its dominance, including the strategic objectives of reunifying Taiwan, asserting control over the South China Sea and East China Sea, and ensuring unimpeded access to vital sea lanes in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.
A critical component of the China-Russia strategy is the concerted effort to undermine US-led global governance. This includes challenging American influence in international organizations like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and promoting alternative frameworks like BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
By doing so, Russia and China aim to create a multipolar world order that dilutes Western dominance. Economic collaboration between the two nations is equally significant. By increasing bilateral trade using national currencies — currently 92% in yuan and ruble — Russia and China are countering Western sanctions and reducing their reliance on the US dollar. This economic strategy extends to advanced technological collaboration, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and telecommunications.
The strategic partnership between China and Russia, even if transactional, poses a significant challenge to the US. This alliance creates a two-front scenario for Washington, compelling it to navigate a belligerent Russia in Europe and an increasingly aggressive China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The primary objective of the China-Russia alliance is to counterbalance US influence in international politics, compelling the US to divide its focus from a single theatre, be it in Europe or the Indo-Pacific.
Implications For India
As the 21st-century global dynamics evolve, India finds itself navigating an increasingly unstable international landscape. It is evident that neither a unipolar world dominated by the United States nor a bipolar order centered around US-China rivalry is in India’s strategic interest.
Instead, a multipolar world with a diminished yet strategically relevant Russian pole presents the most favorable scenario for India’s geopolitical aspirations.
However, Russia’s increasing closeness to China over recent years has been a cause for concern in New Delhi. India views this relationship with caution, mainly due to its extensive military and defense ties with Russia and the ongoing standoff with China. For New Delhi, managing the Russia-China axis presents a significant foreign policy challenge, altering its strategic outlook in fundamental ways.
Furthermore, a strengthened Sino-Russian economic collaboration might marginalize India in regional infrastructure projects and trade routes. Also, closer China-Russia cooperation on the global stage diminishes Indian influence in regional forums such as the SCO and BRICS.
This emerging configuration necessitates that India carefully recalibrate its foreign policy to maintain its space within these forums while safeguarding its national interests.
It is understood that Russia, China, and India seek a multipolar world order that diminishes the post-World War II hegemony of the United States. However, while India’s vision of a multipolar world is non-West, the one sought by Russia with China is anti-West.
This marks a significant divergence in their strategic interests. In forums like the SCO and BRICS, India aims to amplify the voice of the Global South, positioning itself as a bridge between the developed and developing worlds. This role was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, where India partnered with the US, Australia, and Japan under the Quad framework to assist Indo-Pacific nations with vaccines.
Conversely, China and Russia seek to form an anti-Western bloc through their partnerships with the Global South, aiming to undermine the West. The differences between India and the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea bloc are fundamental.
India emphasizes multi-alignment, strategic autonomy, and constructive mini-lateralisms through groupings like the Quad and BIMSTEC. In contrast, the China-Russia axis approaches values, norms, and institutions from an anti-West perspective, aimed at militarily and economically countering the US and its allies, which does not precisely align with India’s approach.
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The foundation of the China-Russia “no-limits” alliance is rooted in the evolving global power structure since the early 2010s. Both nations perceived a need to collaborate against the United States’ hegemonic, albeit declining, influence.
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has skillfully maneuvered the international landscape to enhance its global standing. Utilizing its substantial hard power — conventional military strength, extensive nuclear deterrence, private militias, energy resources, and strategic geopolitical moves — Russia seeks to maximize its bargaining power and extend its influence.
The Russo-China alliance is visibly strengthening through joint military exercises and defense agreements. This military cooperation serves multiple purposes, such as enhancing capabilities and deterring Western military intervention in their respective spheres of influence.
Economically, the alliance is bolstered by robust trade relations, particularly in energy and natural resources, where Russia is a critical supplier to China. China’s vast energy demands are met by Russian oil and gas exports, securing a stable supply while reducing dependency on potentially hostile Western sources.
Moscow’s strategy in the Russian war against Ukraine aims to disrupt the European security architecture. In Asia, China plans to focus on solidifying its dominance, including the strategic objectives of reunifying Taiwan, asserting control over the South China Sea and East China Sea, and ensuring unimpeded access to vital sea lanes in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.
A critical component of the China-Russia strategy is the concerted effort to undermine US-led global governance. This includes challenging American influence in international organizations like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and promoting alternative frameworks like BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
By doing so, Russia and China aim to create a multipolar world order that dilutes Western dominance. Economic collaboration between the two nations is equally significant. By increasing bilateral trade using national currencies — currently 92% in yuan and ruble — Russia and China are countering Western sanctions and reducing their reliance on the US dollar. This economic strategy extends to advanced technological collaboration, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and telecommunications.
The strategic partnership between China and Russia, even if transactional, poses a significant challenge to the US. This alliance creates a two-front scenario for Washington, compelling it to navigate a belligerent Russia in Europe and an increasingly aggressive China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The primary objective of the China-Russia alliance is to counterbalance US influence in international politics, compelling the US to divide its focus from a single theatre, be it in Europe or the Indo-Pacific.
Implications For India
As the 21st-century global dynamics evolve, India finds itself navigating an increasingly unstable international landscape. It is evident that neither a unipolar world dominated by the United States nor a bipolar order centered around US-China rivalry is in India’s strategic interest.
Instead, a multipolar world with a diminished yet strategically relevant Russian pole presents the most favorable scenario for India’s geopolitical aspirations.
However, Russia’s increasing closeness to China over recent years has been a cause for concern in New Delhi. India views this relationship with caution, mainly due to its extensive military and defense ties with Russia and the ongoing standoff with China. For New Delhi, managing the Russia-China axis presents a significant foreign policy challenge, altering its strategic outlook in fundamental ways.
Furthermore, a strengthened Sino-Russian economic collaboration might marginalize India in regional infrastructure projects and trade routes. Also, closer China-Russia cooperation on the global stage diminishes Indian influence in regional forums such as the SCO and BRICS.
This emerging configuration necessitates that India carefully recalibrate its foreign policy to maintain its space within these forums while safeguarding its national interests.
It is understood that Russia, China, and India seek a multipolar world order that diminishes the post-World War II hegemony of the United States. However, while India’s vision of a multipolar world is non-West, the one sought by Russia with China is anti-West.
This marks a significant divergence in their strategic interests. In forums like the SCO and BRICS, India aims to amplify the voice of the Global South, positioning itself as a bridge between the developed and developing worlds. This role was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, where India partnered with the US, Australia, and Japan under the Quad framework to assist Indo-Pacific nations with vaccines.
Conversely, China and Russia seek to form an anti-Western bloc through their partnerships with the Global South, aiming to undermine the West. The differences between India and the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea bloc are fundamental.
India emphasizes multi-alignment, strategic autonomy, and constructive mini-lateralisms through groupings like the Quad and BIMSTEC. In contrast, the China-Russia axis approaches values, norms, and institutions from an anti-West perspective, aimed at militarily and economically countering the US and its allies, which does not precisely align with India’s approach.
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