Opinion - Eurasia is the future — the US needs to get on board.
A major discovery of rare earth elements in central Kazakhstan earlier this year sent a jolt through global markets and policymaking circles, with early estimates suggesting it could place the country among the world’s top three holders of rare earth reserves. As the Trump administration scrambles to secure alternatives to China’s near-monopoly over these critical materials, used in modern technology such as smartphones, electric cars and computers, the spotlight is once again turning to a region long overlooked by Washington: the post-Soviet Turkic world.
These Turkic nations — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan — are unfamiliar to most Americans. Yet U.S. officials have long recognized the region’s value, measured in energy, strategic minerals, rare earth elements and alternative supply routes.
For many thorny reasons, Washington has failed to establish firm allies there. Diplomatic presence tells the story: while Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have visited Central Asia 14 and 83 times, respectively, since taking office, no U.S. president has visited any Turkic nation besides Turkey.
And now the U.S. has fallen behind.
Russia, China and the European Union have all successfully made inroads in the Turkic world in recent years. Moscow, which has traditionally dominated the region, has largely taken control of Uzbekistan’s gas industry, while partnering with Kazakhstan on gas and oil exports and nuclear technology for a planned power plant. In 2023, China increased trade with Central Asia by 27 percent from the year prior while signing strategic partnerships with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. And the EU recently held a large summit with Central Asian countries in Uzbekistan, announcing it would invest $12 billion in the region.
These global powers understand the stakes. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan together hold 6.5 percent of global gas reserves. Turkmenistan ranks sixth worldwide in gas, and Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are major oil producers. And over the past several months, Astana has massively exceeded OPEC-plus production targets without signs of slowing.
But most important today is the region’s supply of minerals and rare earth elements. Besides Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan also has significant reserves and recently invested $2.6 billion to develop mineral extraction. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also have large reserves of strategic minerals with military, economic and technological uses, like gold, uranium, copper, tungsten, silicon, lithium and titanium.
Given Central Asia’s large reserves, Washington should invest in refining and mining rare earth elements, to break Beijing’s dominance. Refining is particularly important, as these countries lack the ability to refine important strategic minerals like lithium, uranium, nickel and cobalt and often do so in China or Russia. To pave the way for such investment, Congress should consider granting the Turkic world Permanent Normal Trade Relations status.
Besides having valuable resources, the region plays an important role in supply routes. During the height of the ancient Silk Road’s importance, the Turkic world glued the continent together, serving as a thoroughfare between China, India and Europe. Today, it may be resuming its historic role as a bridge between the East and West, as the Middle Corridor gains in popularity — a transit route from East Asia to Europe bypassing both Russia and Iran. U.S. officials have spoken of the importance of the Middle Corridor in the past, and last year, Washington and Europe signed a Memorandum of Understanding to further develop the route.
Such developments give the U.S. a clear opportunity. Should Washington start seriously developing the corridor, it would give Kazakhstani energy a bypass through Azerbaijan while weakening Russia’s hold on Kazakhstan. An important step would be brokering a final peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, widening the corridor and giving an alternative to Georgia, which has become closer to Russia in recent years.
Many Turkic leaders, including former Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, former Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev and former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, have spoken about decreasing their outward reliance by forming a Turkic bloc. The bloc would represent a total of roughly 175 million inhabitants, with a GDP of some $1.9 trillion — about 95 percent of the Russian GDP, and a growth rate 2 percent higher than the global average. Currently, Turkic countries have deepened cooperation through the Organization of Turkic States.
Should Turkic countries increase cooperation further, they will be better able to dictate their own terms. Although Turkey was once expected to lead a unified Turkic bloc, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Islamist policies and Ankara’s focus on the Arab world have alienated key regional powers. The secular Turkic governments are wary of ideological influence, and of becoming subordinate to Ankara. This has led to a leadership vacuum — although possibly not for long.
After the conclusion of the 2020 Karabakh war with Armenia, Azerbaijan has begun to position itself along with Kazakhstan as a leader of the Turkic world. Both countries hold the largest reserves of energy and minerals and are most crucial to trade routes. Azerbaijan is located on the very bottleneck between Iran and Russia that crosses the Middle Corridor. Kazakhstan’s location makes it the most feasible country for Chinese products to cross over to Europe.
The U.S. must take the Turkic world seriously, and soon — not just in words, but with a presidential visit, sustained investment and a new Silk Road strategy.
A major discovery of rare earth elements in central Kazakhstan earlier this year sent a jolt through global markets and policymaking circles, with early estimates suggesting it could place the country among the world’s top three holders of rare earth reserves. As the Trump administration scrambles to secure alternatives to China’s near-monopoly over these critical materials, used in modern technology such as smartphones, electric cars and computers, the spotlight is once again turning to a region long overlooked by Washington: the post-Soviet Turkic world.
These Turkic nations — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan — are unfamiliar to most Americans. Yet U.S. officials have long recognized the region’s value, measured in energy, strategic minerals, rare earth elements and alternative supply routes.
For many thorny reasons, Washington has failed to establish firm allies there. Diplomatic presence tells the story: while Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have visited Central Asia 14 and 83 times, respectively, since taking office, no U.S. president has visited any Turkic nation besides Turkey.
And now the U.S. has fallen behind.
Russia, China and the European Union have all successfully made inroads in the Turkic world in recent years. Moscow, which has traditionally dominated the region, has largely taken control of Uzbekistan’s gas industry, while partnering with Kazakhstan on gas and oil exports and nuclear technology for a planned power plant. In 2023, China increased trade with Central Asia by 27 percent from the year prior while signing strategic partnerships with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. And the EU recently held a large summit with Central Asian countries in Uzbekistan, announcing it would invest $12 billion in the region.
These global powers understand the stakes. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan together hold 6.5 percent of global gas reserves. Turkmenistan ranks sixth worldwide in gas, and Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are major oil producers. And over the past several months, Astana has massively exceeded OPEC-plus production targets without signs of slowing.
But most important today is the region’s supply of minerals and rare earth elements. Besides Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan also has significant reserves and recently invested $2.6 billion to develop mineral extraction. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also have large reserves of strategic minerals with military, economic and technological uses, like gold, uranium, copper, tungsten, silicon, lithium and titanium.
Given Central Asia’s large reserves, Washington should invest in refining and mining rare earth elements, to break Beijing’s dominance. Refining is particularly important, as these countries lack the ability to refine important strategic minerals like lithium, uranium, nickel and cobalt and often do so in China or Russia. To pave the way for such investment, Congress should consider granting the Turkic world Permanent Normal Trade Relations status.
Besides having valuable resources, the region plays an important role in supply routes. During the height of the ancient Silk Road’s importance, the Turkic world glued the continent together, serving as a thoroughfare between China, India and Europe. Today, it may be resuming its historic role as a bridge between the East and West, as the Middle Corridor gains in popularity — a transit route from East Asia to Europe bypassing both Russia and Iran. U.S. officials have spoken of the importance of the Middle Corridor in the past, and last year, Washington and Europe signed a Memorandum of Understanding to further develop the route.
Such developments give the U.S. a clear opportunity. Should Washington start seriously developing the corridor, it would give Kazakhstani energy a bypass through Azerbaijan while weakening Russia’s hold on Kazakhstan. An important step would be brokering a final peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, widening the corridor and giving an alternative to Georgia, which has become closer to Russia in recent years.
Many Turkic leaders, including former Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, former Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev and former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, have spoken about decreasing their outward reliance by forming a Turkic bloc. The bloc would represent a total of roughly 175 million inhabitants, with a GDP of some $1.9 trillion — about 95 percent of the Russian GDP, and a growth rate 2 percent higher than the global average. Currently, Turkic countries have deepened cooperation through the Organization of Turkic States.
Should Turkic countries increase cooperation further, they will be better able to dictate their own terms. Although Turkey was once expected to lead a unified Turkic bloc, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Islamist policies and Ankara’s focus on the Arab world have alienated key regional powers. The secular Turkic governments are wary of ideological influence, and of becoming subordinate to Ankara. This has led to a leadership vacuum — although possibly not for long.
After the conclusion of the 2020 Karabakh war with Armenia, Azerbaijan has begun to position itself along with Kazakhstan as a leader of the Turkic world. Both countries hold the largest reserves of energy and minerals and are most crucial to trade routes. Azerbaijan is located on the very bottleneck between Iran and Russia that crosses the Middle Corridor. Kazakhstan’s location makes it the most feasible country for Chinese products to cross over to Europe.
The U.S. must take the Turkic world seriously, and soon — not just in words, but with a presidential visit, sustained investment and a new Silk Road strategy.
5 months ago
